Myanmar Risk Monthly Report October
According to the Hanwei International Security Public Opinion Report, a total of 110 representative security incidents occurred in Myanmar in October, 44 fewer than in September. These incidents resulted in 195 deaths and 435 injuries. Among the categorized security incidents, airstrikes, robberies, and armed conflicts were predominant. The incidents mainly occurred in Shan State, Mandalay, and other regions.
Hanwei International analysis indicates that Myanmar's security situation remains tense. While the number of security incidents increased compared to the previous month, the death toll and injuries decreased. The relationship between Myanmar's ethnic armed groups and the central government remains unstable, with conflicts likely to erupt at any time. The fighting affects civilians, with gun battles, artillery strikes, and other violent acts displacing people.
Seeking win-win coexistence and peaceful conflict resolution.
On October 15, 2024, according to a report by Myanmar-language media NP News, SAC (State Administration Council) Chairman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing stated in a speech commemorating the ninth anniversary of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) signing that there would be no compromise through armed demands. He noted that within just three years after the NCA signing, the military unilaterally declared ceasefires multiple times to promote national development, cooperated accordingly, and repeatedly invited peace talks. On the afternoon of October 24, a ceremony marking the 60th anniversary of the Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation Program was held in Nay Pyi Taw. Under the witness of SAC Chairman and Prime Minister Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, Myanmar and India signed five memorandums of understanding on Quick Impact Projects (QIPs) and held an exchange ceremony. India provided emergency assistance during the "Capricorn" (Yagi) tropical storm, demonstrating the friendly relations and neighborly spirit between the two countries. On October 25, Ambassador Ma Jia met with Myanmar's Minister of Information U Maung Maung Ohn in Nay Pyi Taw to exchange views on China-Myanmar cooperation in news media and people-to-people exchanges. Ma Jia stated that China is advancing systemic media reforms in line with the arrangements of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, accelerating the construction of a multi-channel, three-dimensional communication framework. China is willing to strengthen media and people-to-people exchanges and cooperation with Myanmar to promote mutual understanding between the two peoples. U Maung Maung Ohn said that the Myanmar-China pauk-phaw friendship has grown stronger over time, and Myanmar is willing to work with China to promote friendly relations and create a favorable public opinion environment for bilateral cooperation. On October 29, during a UN meeting, UN Special Envoy on Myanmar Christine Schraner Burgener stated that she would visit Myanmar again. Burgener said she urged Senior General Min Aung Hlaing to cease hostilities, abandon zero-sum thinking, and seek win-win coexistence and peaceful conflict resolution. Burgener pointed out that armed conflicts continue nationwide with little progress in meeting people's needs, and all parties involved in Myanmar's issues must stop fighting.
Central Bank continues foreign exchange sales, efforts to develop investment projects.
At the 10th/2024 meeting of the Yangon Region Investment Committee, two business projects were approved, expected to create 622 jobs. The approved projects include hotel services and garment manufacturing under the CMP system. The total investment for these projects is 860 million kyat and $110.3 million respectively. The Yangon Region Investment Committee has approved 10 new investment projects this month, expected to create 2,594 jobs. According to data released by the Central Bank of Myanmar on October 25, the bank sold another $20 million, over 800,000 RMB, and over 200,000 Thai baht. This marks the sixth consecutive day of foreign exchange sales after the Thadingyut holiday, with over $215 million sold in the past two and a half months. On October 15, the Central Bank sold nearly 200 million Thai baht and over $6 million. From October 20 to 25, it continued foreign exchange sales for six consecutive days. Statistics from Myanmar's Directorate of Investment and Company Administration (DICA) show that in the first half of the 2024-2025 fiscal year (starting April 1), over $81.7 million in foreign direct investment flowed into Myanmar's manufacturing sector from 25 enterprises. Chinese companies are the main source of manufacturing investment. In the past six months, the Myanmar Investment Commission approved 30 foreign projects from seven countries and regions, totaling $223 million, while existing enterprises also increased capital.
Natural and man-made disasters continue, people face hardships.
According to Myanmar-language media, Myanmar's Minister of Electricity and Energy U Nyan Tun stated during his speech on the first day (October 23) of the third "Belt and Road" Energy Ministers' Meeting in China that Myanmar is committed to achieving nationwide electricity coverage by 2030. The minister emphasized that Myanmar is actively participating in energy cooperation under the "Belt and Road" initiative to share and benefit from international energy development achievements and innovative technologies. According to Myanmar-language media, a statement from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA-Myanmar) indicates that as of October 2024, only 28.5% of the funding required for Myanmar's Humanitarian Response Plan has been secured. UNOCHA noted that Myanmar's civilians face increasing risks from widespread conflict and flood disasters, with an estimated 3 million people displaced nationwide. On October 24, data from Myanmar's Road Transport Administration Department showed that nearly 3,000 traffic accidents occurred nationwide in the past nine months, with Yangon Region having the highest number. From January to September 2024, 2,896 traffic accidents occurred, resulting in 1,489 deaths and 4,182 injuries. Yangon Region accounted for 630 accidents, the highest among regions, causing 325 deaths and 761 injuries. A research survey report by the Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar (ISP-Myanmar) shows that over the past three years, up to 17,000 armed conflicts have occurred nationwide, displacing over 6.5 million people. According to ISP-Myanmar's research records, in the past three years, at least 17,000 conflicts occurred between ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), People's Defense Force (PDF) armed groups, and the State Administration Council (SAC) military, with conflicts occurring in about 70% of Myanmar's townships.
Conflicts erupt in multiple areas, armed struggles frequent.
On October 1, the People's Defense Force ambushed a Myanmar military column near Budalin Township in Sagaing Region, killing at least 30 soldiers and capturing nearly 40. From October 2 to 4, airstrikes by the Myanmar military in Kawkareik and Hpapun Townships in Karen State caused casualties. On October 3, the Myanmar military government used fighter jets to bomb Kawlin Township in Sagaing Region, killing 8 and injuring 19. From October 6 to 13, 66 armed conflicts occurred in Myanmar, killing at least 89 people. These conflicts were mainly concentrated in Kachin State, Rakhine State, and Shan State. Among them, a bomb attack on the administrative office in Shwepyitha Township, Yangon, injured three officials. The Myanmar military continued bombing Lashio Township in Shan State and began gathering troops in Tangyan Township, causing locals to flee. Airstrikes in Gangaw District, Magway Region, killed 8 and injured at least 10. Gangaw District is located between conflict-prone areas of Chin State and Sagaing Region. Local anti-government armed groups urged people to dig and build air-raid shelters to protect against military airstrikes. On October 8, nearly 400 Myanmar soldiers and Pyu Saw Htee militia attacked villages west of Madaya Township in Mandalay Region and shelled villages near the Ayeyarwady River in Mandalay. Local anti-government armed forces were forced to retreat under heavy attack. Around 1 PM on October 16, at the Yone Hotel in Nandawun residential area, South Chinsu Quarter, Sagaing City, three PDF members came to the hotel and, in front of the owner U Yein Kyaw's wife, accused him of being an informant and shot him. U Yein Kyaw died instantly from gunshot wounds. On the evening of October 27, near AMF (30) School on Padonmar Road in Dagon Seikkan Township, Yangon Region, two PDF members were injured and arrested when a mine they were planting exploded.
Hanwei International Recommendations:
At around 5 PM local time on October 18, an explosion occurred at an office building adjacent to the Chinese Consulate General in Mandalay, causing partial damage to the consulate but no casualties. China has made serious representations to Myanmar, urging a thorough investigation, full efforts to apprehend and punish those responsible, and enhanced security measures for Chinese diplomatic missions, projects, and personnel in Myanmar to prevent similar incidents. All Chinese citizens, enterprises, and institutions in Myanmar are advised to continue closely monitoring the local security situation, strengthen security measures, and take precautions.
Myanmar emergency numbers: 0095-199 (police); 0095-192 (medical); Chinese Consulate General in Mandalay consular protection and assistance: 0095-9-259172726; Chinese Embassy in Myanmar consular protection and assistance: 0095-9-43209657; Ministry of Foreign Affairs Global Consular Protection and Service Hotline (24/7): 0086-10-12308 or 0086-10-65612308.
Chart 1: October Security Incident Classification
Chart 2: October Deaths/Injuries Classification Statistics
Chart 3: October Major Regional Security Incident Statistics
Chart 4: October vs September Major Security Incident Comparison
