Myanmar's December Risk Monthly Report
According to the security public opinion report of Hanwei International, a total of 89 representative security incidents of various types occurred in Myanmar in December, 23 fewer than in November. The total number of deaths and injuries caused by various security incidents was 104. Among the sorted security categories, security incidents are mainly robbery, armed conflict and drug abuse. The security incidents mainly occurred in Shan State, Mandalay, Yangon and other places.
Hanwei International analysis shows that the security situation in Myanmar remains tense. According to statistics, the number of security incidents has slightly decreased compared to last month, the death toll has dropped, and the number of injuries has increased. The chairman of the National Management Committee called on the three Northern Alliance civilian forces (MNDAA in Kokang, TNLA in Deang, and AA in Rakhine) to abandon their armed lines and return to the peace negotiation table. The National Democratic Alliance of Myanmar has also declared its willingness to resolve the conflict issue through political peace talks and to make efforts for peace, but the public still holds a skeptical attitude towards this.
Internal negotiations are willing, but the security situation still deteriorates.
On December 3rd, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance (MNDAA) issued a statement saying that it would resolve the issue through talks and announced that its troops would cease fire at their current locations. The MNDAA stated in the statement that in order to take into account the interests of the war-torn people, maintain peace and stability along the China-Myanmar border, resolve domestic conflicts through political means, and effectively promote regional peace,
On December 13th, it was reported that the Kokang Allied Forces announced a ceasefire and, with the mediation and assistance of China, representatives of the Kokang Allied Forces will hold talks with representatives of the Myanmar military government in Kunming, Yunnan Province on December 15th.
On December 14th, the De 'ang National Liberation Army stated that in order to respect and recognize the intervention efforts made by the Chinese government to stabilize the border and end the fighting, it is ready to hold talks with the Myanmar military to end the conflict between the two armies and establish a stable and peaceful political situation.
On December 19th, at the invitation of Thai Foreign Minister Mari, Myanmar's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister U Dan Sui attended the informal meeting of foreign ministers of Myanmar and neighboring countries such as Bangladesh, China, India, Laos and Thailand held in Bangkok, Thailand. The main topics of the meeting were border affairs and cross-border crime issues. The participants will discuss peace and stability in border areas and joint actions to combat cross-border crimes.United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA).
The report released on December 23rd stated that the security situation in Rakhine State is deteriorating due to the intense armed conflict between the "Rakhine Army (AA)" and the defense forces. According to the United Nations, more than 3.5 million people in Myanmar have fled the war. The United Nations also calls on all parties involved in the conflict in Myanmar to abide by international humanitarian law, assist civilians, fully protect aid workers and supplies, and ensure the smooth flow of humanitarian aid.
On December 29, 2024, the Civil Armed Forces AA issued a notice, declaring its willingness to resolve the conflict through political peace talks. This is the only one of the three northern Allied forces to make such an announcement. In this announcement, AA claimed that the three allied forces had reached the "HG Consensus" under the mediation of a neighboring country. Given the current situation in Myanmar, it is better to resolve the issue through politics rather than by force. They also stated that they have made preparations for peace talks.
Costs in all industries are increasing, making economic recovery difficult.
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) survey for Myanmar's manufacturing sector released on December 2nd indicates that the country's manufacturing industry is showing some positive signs. The slight rebound in Myanmar's manufacturing PMI index in November indicates that the country's manufacturing sector is gradually emerging from its predicament. The easing of cost pressure brought about by currency depreciation and the increase in new orders have sent positive signals for the recovery of Myanmar's manufacturing industry. YRIC has approved a citizen investment project worth 1.5 billion Myanmar kyats. These approved investment projects include the production of various types of clothing under the CMP model, the production and sale of building materials for domestic sale, and the production of wool fibers and yarns under the CMP model, etc. It is expected that they will create 5,255 job opportunities for the domestic market.
On the afternoon of December 18th, the power supply companies in the districts of Lae, Dopong, Dakita, South Ograba, North Ograba and Dingkamzon in Yangon Province successively announced the news of increasing the duration of power outages. Yangon Power Supply Company (YESC) announced that due to the inability of the Yangon Provincial districts to bear the load, the rotational power outage time will be increased once starting from December 19th. The additional power outage time is from 9:00 p.m. to 1:00 a.m. the next day. The continuously increasing power outage time has greatly increased the cost of the factory, and the industrial area is difficult to sustain. According to budget estimates, the average inflation rate in Myanmar for the current fiscal year (2024-2025) is 13.65%. The average inflation rate in the last fiscal year (2023-2024) was 21.2%, and it has decreased by 7.55% in this fiscal year compared to the previous one. Based on the average monthly inflation rate this year, the inflation rate from January to March was 27.89% to 27.53%, and the annual inflation rate was 25.64% to 25.33%.
The demand for aid has increased, and there are concerns about future life.The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) plans to provide assistance projects such as emergency relief, nutritional support and resilience building for approximately 2 million people in Myanmar by 2025. Previously, the WFP issued a statement saying that approximately 13.3 million people (about a quarter of the population) in Myanmar are facing food shortages. According to a report released by the Institute for Strategic and Policy Studies of Myanmar (ISP-Myanmar) on December 20th, a survey of over 500 women across the country shows that 83% of the women surveyed said they are facing economic pressure due to more than three times the increase in prices. In addition, over 88% of women also indicated that they are facing difficulties in finding jobs and are also experiencing an imbalance between income and expenditure. A survey shows that 74% of women are worried about their future lives, and nearly 70% of the respondents are considering relying on existing domestic channels to solve current problems. UNICEF launched the "2024 Children's Humanitarian Campaign" (HAC) on December 12, 2023, dedicated to providing life-saving assistance and critical services to the 3.1 million most vulnerable groups in Myanmar, including 2.1 million children. The plan will cost 208.3 million US dollars and provide educational services for over 890,000 children, as well as mental health and psychological support for 392,000 children, teenagers and their caregivers. Provide clean water and personal and environmental hygiene support to 850,000 people; Provide basic medical care for 350,000 children and women. Rural health workers said that due to the shortage of BCG vaccine for preventing severe tuberculosis, there will be no conditions to vaccinate newborns starting from January 2025.
Armed conflicts occur frequently and the death toll is on the rise.On December 4th, the Kachin Independence Army and its allied forces launched an attack on the towns of Bhamo and Mansi in Kachin State, capturing the forward base of Bhamo which was defended by the 47th Infantry Battalion and the jungle outposts in Mansi and Bhamo. The headquarters of the 319th and 601st light infantry battalions and the 523rd artillery Battalion in Manxi Town were also attacked, and the battle between the two sides was fierce. On the 6th, the Kachin Independence Army occupied the 236th military base of the Myanmar army and the government office in Bhamo Town. The battle has claimed 20 lives. The fighting between the two armies is still ongoing near the 21st Military Operation Command and the golf course in Bhamo Town. On December 5th, it was reported that the head of the 11th community administrative office in Laidaya Town was shot dead by the "GoldenValleyWarriors" armed organization on his way to the factory. On the 7th, the air force base in Maobi Town was attacked by the "Urban Special Operations" (USO) and "Myanmar Brave Fighters" (BWM) organizations, resulting in 15 deaths and 7 injuries. On December 12th, it was reported that the TVXQ Air Base and the Southern Military District headquarters of the Myanmar Army in Bago Province were attacked by rockets, resulting in 2 deaths and 9 injuries. On December 13th, after the Kachin Independence Army and the Allied forces captured the Burmese military camps in Bhamo and Mansi, they successfully controlled 75% of the Bhamo area and continued to launch attacks on the 21st Combat Command and the 47th Infantry Battalion of the Burmese army, aiming to fully control Bhamo. On December 20th, the People's Defense Forces launched an attack on and captured the Myanmar military camp at Yak Kung Mountain in Yak Piu Town, Tanlin Dari Province. The battle resulted in six deaths. On December 24th, a brief exchange of fire broke out between the Myanmar military and the People's Defense Forces in Chang Wu Town, Sagaing Province, resulting in eight Myanmar soldiers being injured. On the same day, an anti-government armed group attacked a convoy of the 33rd Light Infantry Battalion of the Myanmar Army near the National College in Sagaing Town, resulting in 13 deaths. On the 25th, fighting broke out again in Changwuzhen, resulting in 6 deaths and 4 injuries.
With the exposure of cases such as the "Wang Xing Incident", the Myawaddy Telecom fraud park issue quickly became the focus of public opinion. The park is well-equipped with facilities and strictly monitored. Once victims enter, they find it hard to escape and suffer both physically and mentally. Hanwei International suggests: Be vigilant against telecom and online fraud, enhance your awareness and ability to prevent and identify fraud, and do not easily believe so-called "high-salary overseas recruitment" information to avoid falling into the trap of telecom fraud and being harmed by your life and property safety.
Emergency call number in Myanmar: 0095-199. Medical emergency call number in Myanmar: 0095-192. Consular protection and assistance call number of the Consulate General of China in Mandalay: 0095-9-259172726. Consular protection and assistance call number of the Embassy of China in Myanmar: The 24-hour Global Consular Protection and Service hotline of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (0086-10-12308 or 0086-10-65612308) is 0095-9-43209657
Chart 1: Classification of Security Incidents in December
Chart 2: Classification Statistics of Deaths/Injuries in December
Chart 3: Statistics of Security Incidents in Major Provinces in December
Chart 4: Comparison of the Number of Major Security Incidents in December and November
