Security Situation Review of Iraq in February
Researcher No. 006
Based on monitoring reports from Hanwei International’s security officers stationed in Iraq and relevant media coverage, Hanwei International’s analysis concludes that Iraq’s overall social security situation remained highly unstable in February, with the spillover of regional conflicts intertwined with the failure of domestic governance. In the political and economic sphere, disputes over Nouri al-Maliki’s candidacy for prime minister continued to escalate, compounded by external pressure and internal divisions. The Coordination Framework (CF) proposed extending the term of caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s cabinet in an attempt to break the deadlock in government formation. Liquidity shortages at state-owned banks triggered a credit freeze, and chambers of commerce went on strike to protest the new tariff policy, highlighting deep-seated dilemmas in the country’s economic governance. Regarding US-Iraq conflicts, as confrontations between the US, Israel, and Iran intensified, Iraq was trapped in a predicament of being passively drawn in: it faced risks to its territorial sovereignty and internal turmoil caused by domestic armed groups actively intervening in the conflict. In terms of social security, frequent shootings, thefts, explosions, and fires caused casualties and property losses, further eroding public sense of security.
I. Political and Economic Aspects
(1) Deadlock in Forming Iraq’s New Government and Spillover of Security Risks
Sources within Iraq’s Shiite Coordination Framework (CF) revealed that to resolve the government formation deadlock caused by disputes over the prime ministerial candidate, the alliance was considering a compromise proposal—extending the term of caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s cabinet by one year while restricting some of his powers. However, Maliki’s insistence on running for prime minister continued to spark internal and external resistance. On one hand, US President Donald Trump explicitly warned on January 27 that if Maliki returned to the prime minister’s post, the US would suspend cooperation with Iraq. On the other hand, divisions within the CF over Maliki’s candidacy deepened. It is reported that Shiite seats opposing Maliki’s premiership now account for two-thirds of the framework, with opposition voices growing louder.
In the short term, the CF plans to hold a meeting to discuss the proposal to extend Sudani’s cabinet term. If approved, the government formation deadlock would be temporarily eased, but the fundamental disagreements over the prime ministerial candidate would remain unresolved, and the caretaker government’s limited governance effectiveness would persist. If rejected, political factionalism would further intensify, and a split within the CF cannot be ruled out, with conflicts between Maliki and the opposition camp likely to escalate. Meanwhile, the combination of US sanctions threats and rising anti-American sentiment in Iraq could trigger more protests and even risks of retaliatory attacks by pro-Iraqi armed groups against US targets.
(2) Concurrent Bank Credit Freeze and Chamber of Commerce Strike Exacerbate Livelihood Conflicts
Iraq’s state-owned banks faced a severe cash crunch, bringing lending operations to a standstill. According to insiders, state-owned banks such as Rafidain Bank and Rasheed Bank suspended advance payments and all types of loans due to declining liquidity and a lack of clear credit planning. As of February 5, 2026, government-led loan programs remained fully suspended, depriving businesses and projects of necessary financial support and hindering economic recovery. On February 9, the Federation of Iraqi Chambers of Commerce and the Baghdad Chamber of Commerce announced an indefinite closure to express dissatisfaction with the new tariff policy and show solidarity with affected merchants. The federation emphasized in a statement that the strike would continue until the business community’s reasonable demands were met and the policy’s negative impacts on the market and national economy were eliminated. Previously, on February 8, merchants in Baghdad and multiple central and southern provinces launched a large-scale strike, leading to the complete shutdown of local shops and markets.
Tariff hikes drove up prices, putting pressure on merchants’ operations. The credit freeze at state-owned banks led to shrinking employment and stalled livelihood projects, further increasing the public’s living burden. With Iraq’s persistently high unemployment rate—especially among youth—the economic crisis could spark new livelihood protests, overlapping with previous demonstrations by doctors, university faculty, and people with disabilities. Against the backdrop of escalating US-Iraq tensions, if factional forces or extremist groups intervene, protests could escalate into violence or even riots, disrupting social order. Additionally, a prolonged merchant strike could lead to shortages in some areas, further fueling conflicts.
II. US-Iraq Conflicts
In February 2026, military confrontations between the US, Israel, and Iran continued to intensify, with increasingly obvious spillover effects. As a key regional country, Iraq was caught in a predicament of “passive involvement and multi-directional pressure”—facing tangible damage to its territorial sovereignty and energy and livelihood sectors, as well as internal turmoil caused by domestic armed groups actively intervening in the conflict.
(1) Dual Pressures on Sovereignty and Livelihoods as External Conflicts Reach Iraq
On February 28, Iraqi caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani emphasized that the Iraqi government would never allow any party to use its territory or territorial waters to drag the country into regional conflicts and would take all necessary measures in accordance with international law to safeguard national security and sovereignty. Prior to this, multiple areas in Iraq were hit by airstrikes.
(1) Shootings and Thefts
In February, security conditions tightened across Iraq, with a high incidence of shootings and thefts in provinces including Baghdad, Basra, and Najaf.
Shootings: Iraqi police recently solved two consecutive civilian shooting cases in Baghdad. One occurred in the southern Hurriyah district, where the gunman was arrested on the spot after shooting a civilian, with the motive under investigation. The other took place in the northwestern Sha’ab district, where a civilian was killed by gunfire, and three suspects were arrested; police preliminarily attributed the incident to a personal dispute.
Thefts: A safety valve was stolen at the Sinbad oil field in Basra Governorate, causing oil and gas leaks from two wells, prompting emergency repairs by the operator. A jewelry store in Najaf was burglarized via a wall breach, with 3 kilograms of gold worth approximately 800 million Iraqi dinars stolen; the suspect was arrested by police.
Shootings primarily targeted civilians, featuring suddenness and high fatality rates, exacerbating public panic. Frequent thefts directly threatened the property safety of civilians and merchants, further eroding public trust in social order.
(2) Explosions
Baghdad Governorate: A man was seriously injured when a rocket he attempted to launch at home exploded unexpectedly; the motive and details are under investigation.
Kirkuk Governorate: A motorcyclist disguised as a courier tried to deliver a grenade to a residential building and was arrested by police on the spot.
Dispersed explosions have occurred in Baghdad, Kirkuk, and other areas recently. While not concentrated, the risks are relatively hidden. Notably, the weapons involved—high-lethality rockets and grenades—should be under the control of national security forces but have flowed into civilian hands or been used by criminals. If such weapons fall into the hands of extremist groups or armed factions, large-scale explosions could occur, spreading security risks to more areas and further intensifying public panic.
(3) Fires
Salahuddin Governorate: A fire broke out at the Baiji Refinery, killing one worker and injuring 13. According to the Ministry of Oil, the fire was caused by an internal compressor malfunction during replacement work. Firefighters extinguished the blaze promptly, and it did not spread to surrounding production units.
Erbil Governorate: On the same day, a major fire erupted at a new car showroom in the province. Flames suddenly broke out among brand-new vehicles, with flammable materials accelerating the spread, causing severe property damage with no casualties reported.
Nineveh Governorate: A fuel heater explosion and subsequent fire occurred in a woman’s home, leaving her with severe burns; she died after being hospitalized.
February fires in Iraq involved three core scenarios: industrial, commercial, and residential. Fire prevention and control capabilities vary significantly across regions and scenarios: key facilities like the Baiji Refinery and Erbil car showroom can quickly deploy professional firefighting forces, while residential areas and remote regions lack adequate fire facilities and weak emergency response capabilities, posing high risks of casualties from household fires that require focused attention.
Recommendations for Chinese Enterprises and Individuals in Iraq
Enterprise Level
Uphold Neutrality and Strengthen High-Risk Area Prevention: Avoid establishing separate ties with any political faction or armed force and refrain from intervening in sensitive issues such as disputes over the prime ministerial candidate and US-Iraq confrontations to avoid being drawn into local political disputes. Prioritize avoiding US military bases, US-linked oil industry zones, dense Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) strongholds, and areas with active Shiite armed groups; suspend outdoor operations and project inspections in these areas. Oil and energy enterprises should promptly assess the impact of conflicts on production and transportation, suspend non-essential on-site operations, and prioritize personnel safety. Draw on the experience of evacuating Chinese oil experts and develop phased evacuation plans to prevent personnel stranding due to airspace closures or tightened border controls.
Enhance On-Site Security and Mitigate Risks: Improve protective facilities at camps and office areas, increase security personnel, and implement access registration systems to guard against risks from factional conflicts, anti-American protests, and extremist attacks. Projects should be located away from sensitive areas such as US government agencies and military bases; staff should detour promptly when passing through protest or factional gathering zones. Stock up on emergency supplies in advance and refine emergency evacuation plans to ensure rapid response in case of traffic disruptions or unrest.
Individual Level
Raise Awareness and Strengthen Self-Protection: Carry valid documents such as passports when going out, dress modestly to avoid revealing identity, and refrain from carrying large amounts of cash or valuables. Maintain distance from anti-American protests or factional demonstrations—do not gather, take photos, or comment—and detour quickly. If surrounded, stay calm, show documents to cooperate, and seek opportunities to evacuate to safe areas as soon as possible.
Monitor Official Information and Ensure Emergency Communication: As US-Iraq confrontations intensify, risks of attacks by pro-Iraqi armed groups against US targets in Iraq rise. Closely follow security alerts issued by the Chinese Embassy in Iraq to obtain timely political updates and risk warnings. Memorize emergency contact numbers (911) and the Chinese Embassy’s emergency line, familiarize yourself with air-raid shelter procedures, and identify safe shelters near residences and workplaces in advance—seek shelter immediately in case of danger and avoid blind evacuation. Stock up on daily necessities reasonably to cope with rising prices and supply shortages, and minimize frequency of going out to purchase supplies.
