South Africa Security Situation Review – February 2026 (Total Issue No. 289)

South Africa Security Situation Review – February 2026

Researcher No. 006

Based on monitoring reports from Hanwei International’s security officer in South Africa and relevant media coverage, Hanwei International analysis concludes that South Africa’s overall social security environment tightened in February. Systemic pressures emerged from the interplay of four major challenges: diplomatic frictions, livelihood difficulties, public security risks, and public health crises.

In the political and economic sphere: the South African government expelled diplomats from the Israeli Embassy in South Africa, escalating bilateral diplomatic conflicts; a water supply crisis erupted, with the eastern region suffering “technical water shortages” due to aging infrastructure and operational failures, while the western region faced “climatic water shortages” amid persistent drought, further worsening water supply and demand imbalances; the long-standing problem of illegal occupation of properties in downtown Johannesburg has broken through original boundaries and spread northward into traditionally high-end residential communities.

In terms of public security: violent crimes such as shootings, robberies, and kidnappings remained rampant across KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, Limpopo, and other provinces.

In public health: the foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic accelerated, and President Ramaphosa declared it a “national disaster,” posing a major threat to agricultural stability and food supply.

I. Political and Economic Dimensions

(1) Escalating Diplomatic Frictions, Coexistence of Political and Security Risks

On February 4, 2026, the U.S. government publicly criticized South Africa’s decision to expel the top Israeli diplomat in the country, stating that the move intensified international confrontation and harmed South Africa’s own interests. South Africa explained that the expulsion of Mr. Sideman was due to his repeated violations of diplomatic norms, public mockery of South African President Ramaphosa, and other inappropriate remarks, viewing his actions as a serious provocation to national sovereignty and abuse of diplomatic privileges, making him unfit to continue his duties. Israel promptly took reciprocal measures, declaring the senior South African diplomatic representative in Israel a “persona non grata” and ordering him to leave within a time limit, further escalating bilateral diplomatic confrontation. Relations between the two sides have continued to deteriorate since South Africa filed a case at the International Court of Justice in 2024 accusing Israel of “genocide” in the Gaza Strip.

South Africa’s expulsion of the Israeli diplomat has further deepened its diplomatic predicament and widened rifts with the Western bloc. Diplomatic frictions are gradually spilling over into the economic sphere, creating multi-dimensional pressures on Chinese enterprises operating in South Africa. Tensions between South Africa and the Western bloc may cause some Western companies to scale back or withdraw from the local market, disrupting relevant industrial chains and exposing Chinese enterprises to a more uncertain competitive landscape. Meanwhile, intensified diplomatic confrontation may trigger social unrest and worsening security conditions, directly threatening the production and business premises and personnel safety of Chinese enterprises. Coupled with growing instability in transportation and logistics systems, Chinese companies will face greater challenges to supply chain security and operational costs.

(2) Worsening Water Crisis Places Severe Pressure on Livelihoods

In early February 2026, Pretoria and surrounding areas in South Africa suffered prolonged power outages due to a serious failure at the Njala Substation on January 31, disrupting operations of the Rand Water Palmiet water supply system and causing a sharp drop in water pressure. By the night of February 2, 12 reservoirs had completely dried up, densely populated areas such as Laudium and Atteridgeville faced continuous water cuts, and water levels at multiple reservoirs approached warning lines. At the same time, the Midrand area of Johannesburg experienced worsening water shortages due to supply interruptions and aging pipelines.

On February 6, the South African Department of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs officially announced that, in view of the deteriorating drought in the Western Cape, Eastern Cape, and Northern Cape provinces, it had designated the prolonged drought a national disaster. This decision meant the South African government would activate a higher-level emergency response mechanism to address the severe water supply crisis. On February 11, Johannesburg’s water crisis worsened further, with multiple communities without running water for more than ten consecutive days, including the Highlands area which had been cut off for over three weeks, severely disrupting urban daily operations.

This month, South Africa’s water crisis rapidly evolved from a regional technical failure into a nationwide livelihood crisis, creating a severe dual pattern of “infrastructure-driven water shortages in the east” and “climate-driven drought shortages in the west.” Many areas endured water cuts exceeding three weeks, severely impacting people’s basic lives, with long queues for water, school closures, and business shutdowns becoming common. Prolonged shortages of water, a basic necessity for survival, combined with delayed government emergency measures, have fueled growing public discontent, which could easily trigger mass protests. Some regions may even see violent acts such as water looting, property vandalism, and traffic blockades.

(3) Illegal Property Occupations Spread from Periphery to Core Areas

Latest information on February 2 indicated that the long-standing problem of illegal property occupation in downtown Johannesburg is gradually spreading to the suburbs and has reached traditionally high-end residential areas in the north, overturning the common perception that “wealthy areas are safer.” In the Bryanston area, northern Johannesburg, multiple cases of forced occupation of private homes have recently emerged. The municipal government confirmed that at least 17 properties in the area have been confirmed to have suffered similar illegal occupations, and the trend continues to spread with no signs of abating.

The primary impact of illegal property occupation is the complete collapse of community security defenses, particularly in high-end residential areas. On the one hand, most occupiers lack stable incomes and formal employment, and some are linked to criminal gangs. As large numbers of outsiders move into low-density, well-policed upscale communities, floating populations surge, leading to frequent theft, robbery, assault, and other public security incidents. On the other hand, to maximize economic gains, occupiers often alter building structures without authorization, illegally connect electricity, water, and gas lines, severely damaging buildings and creating multiple safety hazards such as fires, electric shocks, and gas leaks.

II. Social Security Risks

The 2026 Numbeo Global Crime Index released on February 20 showed that five South African cities ranked among the world’s top 20 most dangerous cities: Pietermaritzburg (1st), Pretoria (2nd), Johannesburg (5th), Durban (6th), Port Elizabeth (8th), and Cape Town (16th). Although based on public subjective perceptions of crime and safety rather than official data, the index has sparked widespread public concern over urban security in South Africa.

(1) Shooting Incidents

Since February, frequent shooting incidents have erupted in major South African cities including Cape Town and Johannesburg, involving targeted assassinations of local politicians, gang violence, illegal mining, and law enforcement operations involving foreign nationals, causing heavy casualties and highlighting the severity and complexity of the local security situation. Facing the deteriorating security environment, President Ramaphosa has listed crackdowns on gang violence, organized crime, and illegal mining as national priorities for 2026 and is considering deploying the national defense force to assist police operations, underscoring the gravity of current security challenges.

February 3: A targeted shooting occurred in Old Crossroads, Cape Town. ANC councilor Lazola Gunkqese was shot dead by two gunmen while speaking with residents after a community meeting; the suspects fled by car. That same night, a serious shooting on the R59 Highway in Meyerton, southern Johannesburg, killed 6 people and injured 18, all Lesotho nationals.
February 6: Multiple severe shootings took place in Cape Town. Two shootings in Athlone killed 2 and injured 1, one victim being a murder witness in an apparent gang “witness elimination” attack. Later that night, a police-gang shootout in Nyanga lasted 20 minutes, leaving 3 suspects dead and 2 police officers injured.
February 9: South African police launched a raid on illegal mining in Carltonville, Gauteng, a hotspot for illegal gold mining and gun violence. Armed suspects resisted arrest, sparking a two-hour gun battle; two illegal miners were killed, 4 firearms and large amounts of ammunition seized, with no police casualties.
February 13: A shooting occurred in Randburg, Johannesburg. Nigerian national Emeka Uzor was shot multiple times and killed at a gas station during the filming of an anti-drug program, renewing concerns over the safety of foreign nationals in South Africa.
February 23: A serious shooting took place in an informal settlement in Milnerton, Cape Town. Police found a silver Toyota car riddled with bullet holes, with two women dead inside and a 36-year-old man killed nearby. Investigations into possible gang or taxi industry links are ongoing.

(2) Robberies

This month, vicious armed robberies occurred successively across South Africa, targeting high-value assets such as cash-in-transit vehicles, precious metals, and cash shipments at private airports. Perpetrators acted brazenly and in highly organized groups, causing injuries, traffic paralysis, and massive property losses, exposing worsening security conditions and heightening public anxiety.

February 3: A cash-in-transit vehicle was robbed and exploded on the N2 Highway in KwaZulu-Natal. One security guard was slightly injured; robbers fled, scattering large amounts of cash and sparking looting by hundreds of residents.
February 9: A major armed robbery occurred at Thabazimbi Airport, Limpopo. Six armed gunmen intercepted a man transporting precious metals in broad daylight, stealing approximately 21.3 kg of gold and copper and seizing firearms from two security guards. Police later recovered the stolen guns and some ammunition, but suspects remain at large in two vehicles.
February 24: South African police in KwaZulu-Natal launched a raid in Edenvale based on clues from a cash-in-transit robbery on February 23. A fierce shootout ensued, leaving two suspects dead and one escaping.

(3) Kidnappings

From late January to February 2026, two serious kidnapping cases occurred in South Africa, in the Eastern Cape and Gauteng respectively, targeting both foreign nationals and local businesspeople. Both involved armed abductions, reflecting the violent nature of kidnapping crimes and their severe threat to public security.

January 29: An armed kidnapping took place on the R75 National Road in Port Elizabeth, Eastern Cape. A foreign national driving a blue Ford pickup was surrounded and abducted by about eight gunmen, sparking widespread concern over road safety and kidnapping trends.
February 24: Johannesburg municipal police on patrol in Lenasia responded to a kidnapping report. A business owner was abducted by two gunmen after closing his shop. Officers responded swiftly, successfully rescuing the victim held in Soweto, arresting two suspects, and seizing the weapon used.

III. Public Health

(1) Foot-and-Mouth Disease Spreads, Threatening Agricultural Production Safety

In February 2026, South Africa’s foot-and-mouth disease epidemic intensified further, characterized by accelerated spread, expanded impact, and upgraded prevention and control measures. The outbreak, first detected in KwaZulu-Natal in April 2025, has gradually evolved into a serious animal epidemic crisis covering 8 of South Africa’s 9 provinces. As of the end of February, only the Northern Cape has not reported cases, making this the worst FMD outbreak in South Africa in recent years.

On February 14, the first FMD case was confirmed at a dairy farm near Hartenbos along the Garden Route in the Western Cape, sounding a high-level alarm for agricultural authorities. Western Cape veterinary services confirmed the test results immediately and placed the affected farm under full quarantine. To block transmission, all farms within a 10-kilometer radius received temporary quarantine notices and are under strict monitoring.

Facing the continuous spread of the epidemic, President Ramaphosa formally declared foot-and-mouth disease a “national disaster” in his latest State of the Nation Address, highlighting its severe impact on agricultural production, food security, and export trade. The public widely expects the South African government to accelerate vaccine procurement and prevention deployment to strengthen agricultural security, contain further spread, and avoid greater damage to food supply and export trade.

Security Recommendations for Chinese Enterprises and Individuals in South Africa

For Enterprises

Closely monitor diplomatic developments and strengthen risk assessment
Continuously track the status of South Africa’s diplomatic relations with the U.S., Israel, and other countries; pay attention to security alerts and warnings issued by the Chinese Embassy and Consulates in South Africa; stay updated on changes in South Africa’s foreign policies, potential international sanctions, and cross-border security risks to guard against secondary impacts from diplomatic confrontation. Focus on escalating frictions between South Africa and Western nations and possible further U.S. sanctions, and assess their potential impacts on business operations in advance.
Strengthen cross-border compliance management and enhance risk response capabilities
Chinese enterprises should systematically review cooperation links involving Western bloc countries and Israel in existing business, comprehensively evaluate risks such as supply chain disruptions, contract performance obstacles, and sanctions spillovers that may arise from diplomatic frictions, and formulate contingency plans in advance to minimize impacts from diplomatic changes on operations. Meanwhile, strictly abide by local South African laws and regulations, actively cooperate with compliance reviews by judicial and administrative authorities, strengthen legal risk prevention, and ensure stable operations in the South African market.
Upgrade comprehensive security systems and strengthen physical and personnel protection
Chinese enterprises should fully upgrade security standards for offices, production bases, warehouses, staff dormitories, and other fixed premises, including installing anti-theft doors and windows, high-definition monitoring systems, infrared alarms, and perimeter fencing. Employ qualified professional security teams for 24-hour shifts, increase patrols especially at night, strictly control exposure risks during cash and valuables storage and transportation, and improve defenses against theft, robbery, violent attacks, and other emergencies.

For Individuals

Stay away from sensitive areas of diplomatic disputes to avoid potential risks
Avoid participating in rallies, protests, or discussions related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or South Africa’s diplomatic positions. Do not publicly express support or opposition to either side to prevent being drawn into security risks stemming from diplomatic confrontation. Stay away from government buildings, diplomatic facilities, Israeli-linked premises (even if suspended), and gathering areas of pro-Palestinian or pro-Israel civil organizations to minimize the risk of retaliation by extremist groups.
Control travel and avoid high-risk areas
Minimize non-essential outings, especially at night, on weekends, and during holidays. Avoid crowded, high-crime, or protest-prone areas. Plan safe routes in advance, prefer main roads with police patrols, and avoid remote areas. Keep vehicle doors locked while driving, do not carry valuables, and immediately detour around congestion or suspicious situations without gathering or lingering.
Strengthen water safety management to prevent health risks
Closely follow local water supply announcements, stock up sufficient drinking and domestic water in advance, prioritize bottled water that meets safety standards, and avoid drinking unboiled tap water to reduce potential health hazards.