Iraq Security Situation Overview for November 2025(Issue No. 283 in Total)

Overview of Iraq's Security Situation in December

Researcher No. 006

Based on the monitoring reports from Hanwei International's security officers stationed in Iraq and relevant media coverage, Hanwei International's analysis concludes that Iraq's security situation is complex and remains fragile yet controllable on the whole. On the political and economic front, the election of Iraq's parliamentary leadership has been completed, but the races for the presidency and prime ministership remain deadlocked. The long-delayed approval of the 2025 federal budget has triggered a local fiscal crisis, leading to the suspension of infrastructure projects, inadequate public service supply, and successive public protests and demonstrations. In terms of social security, shooting, robbery and theft cases occur frequently; the divisions among armed factions have intensified, and the risk of localized conflicts may rise. In other aspects, traffic accidents caused by speeding, illegal retrograde driving and natural factors such as reduced visibility due to heavy fog have resulted in heavy casualties.

I. Political and Economic Aspects

(1) Completion of Iraq's Parliamentary Leadership Election, Cabinet Formation Prospects Remain Uncertain

In December 2025, the political solidarity among Sunni factions tended to stabilize. Despite numerous differences at the initial stage of the election, a consensus was finally reached on the candidate for Speaker, further consolidating the Sunni faction's right to speak in the upcoming new government system. At the 6th parliamentary session, Haibat al-Habashi, representative of the Sunni Progress Party, was elected Speaker with 208 votes. Adnan al-Fayez of the Shiite faction was elected First Deputy Speaker, and Farhad Amin Atroushi of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) was elected Second Deputy Speaker.

At the same time, the candidates for the presidency and prime ministership still face great uncertainty.

Presidential Election: With the continuous rise of its political strength, the Kurdistan Democratic Party has called for reforming the current presidential election mechanism, advocating that Kurdish parties jointly nominate the presidential candidate through collective consultation. This move aims to break the long-standing pattern dominated by the two major parties—the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan—and further weaken the traditional political advantage of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.
Prime Minister Candidate: There are major divisions among Shiite political forces, and there are numerous disputes over potential prime minister candidates within the Coordination Framework. Some senior members even stated that the final prime minister candidate must be approved by the United States. This further highlights the continuous influence of external factors in Iraq's political system, which may lead to intensified external games and increased regional tensions.

(2) Prolonged Stalemate of Iraq's 2025 Federal Budget, Persistent Expansion of Local Funding Gaps

As of December, the Iraqi government still had not submitted the 2025 budget draft to the parliament for approval, resulting in a deadlock in the federal budget approval process. Consequently, the progress of various national service and investment projects has been generally hindered. At present, basic expenditures are only maintained in accordance with the temporary clause of "1/12 monthly expenditure" under the 2019 Financial Management Law No. 6.

Not only can new projects not be launched, but the progress of existing projects has also been significantly delayed, leading to the suspension of project payment to contractors. Meanwhile, it has severely affected the maintenance of infrastructure such as hydropower stations, water supply stations and roads, greatly reducing the quality of public services in many areas.

At the same time, the continuous expansion of local fiscal gaps is affecting the livelihood security of local residents. For example, in southern Dhi Qar Province, more than 120 infrastructure projects are on the verge of suspension due to fund shortages, involving arrears of approximately 100 billion Iraqi dinars (equivalent to about 71 million US dollars). In addition, many public hospitals and other health departments in the province are facing severe shortages of medicines and medical supplies, directly impacting grassroots livelihood services.

Provinces such as Baghdad, Basra and Nineveh are also facing similar fiscal difficulties, and multiple comprehensive reconstruction projects including water supply system renovation and municipal engineering have come to a standstill. Public sentiment is vulnerable to incitement, and may be exploited by factional forces, which is likely to trigger localized conflicts and unrest, undermining social stability.

(3) Public Service Crises Trigger Chain Reactions of Protests, Local Security Situation Remains Unstable

Water Quality Crisis: In the Al-Sharsh area of Qurna District, Basra Province, local residents held three consecutive days of rallies to protest against the continuous deterioration of water quality and the lack of corresponding public services. They complained about the serious salinization of drinking water, the long-term stagnation of infrastructure projects and the shortage of basic living security, demanding the accelerated construction of flood control embankments, road repairs and drainage system renovations. As the local government failed to reach an agreement with the protesting residents, the protests continued.
Power Outage Issue: A large number of residents gathered in the former Kurdish-controlled Fiylaq area of Kirkuk. Dozens of demonstrators protested against frequent power outages and the severe shortage of daily power supply hours, which has seriously affected residents' daily lives, especially the elderly, patients and shop operators.
Medical Staff Dispute: At Hanjin Hospital in Diyala Province, relatives of a senior party official broke into the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) with armed personnel, sparking a conflict with medical staff. Staff members of the hospital launched a protest, demanding that the government provide necessary security guarantees for medical institutions and medical personnel to avoid improper or even violent interference from the outside world during work.

The current frequent protests and demonstrations are related to Iraq's long-standing budget deadlock and fiscal pressure, which have led to the slow progress of infrastructure projects such as water supply, power supply and medical care, the continuous deterioration of public services, and the accumulation of public dissatisfaction. The scale and intensity of protests may continue to escalate, posing a serious threat to social stability.

II. Social Security Risks

(1) Shooting Incidents

In December, shooting incidents in Iraq were mostly concentrated in key areas such as Baghdad and Kirkuk, involving confrontational exchanges of fire during law enforcement operations, targeted retaliatory shootings and attacks on public officials performing their duties.

Baghdad: When Iraqi security forces carried out an arrest operation in the Arab Abbas District of Baghdad, an armed conflict broke out with the target gang, resulting in 1 suspect being killed and 3 others arrested. In the Tel Jahmaniya District, municipal staff and federal police were attacked with stones by local residents while clearing illegal buildings, which later escalated into a shootout, injuring 2 municipal staff and 3 security personnel.
Kirkuk: In the Lilan Subdistrict, a 51-year-old man was shot dead by unidentified individuals in his shop. In the northern Al-Arafat District, Zaid Adil Sabih, a former colonel of the Al-Arafat Police Station (a Christian), was attacked by armed militants near a church close to his residence and died of serious injuries.

(2) Robbery/Theft

In December, multiple theft and robbery cases occurred in Baghdad and Dhi Qar Province of Iraq, all committed by individuals, involving knife-point robberies, gold thefts and a series of motorcycle thefts.

Baghdad: On the eastern Palestine Street, a man was attacked by a 19-year-old youth with a knife and had his backpack stolen, which contained two mobile phones and 675,000 Iraqi dinars. Security forces in western Baghdad successfully arrested a female suspect in the gold jewelry theft case at a store in the Karkh District and recovered all stolen items.
Dhi Qar Province: In the Nasiriyah area, Dhi Qar Provincial Police successfully apprehended a man who confessed to committing 13 motorcycle thefts.

(3) Disputes Over Disarmament Among Armed Factions

During the formation of the new government after Iraq's general election in December, the issue of "whether armed forces should be fully under the unified control of the state" has become an important topic. Under the intervention of multiple external forces such as the United States and Iran, two camps have emerged: those in favor of disarmament and those opposed.

Pro-disarmament Camp: The Coordination Framework, the largest political coalition in the parliament, clearly advocates placing all weapons under unified state management through the establishment of clear legal mechanisms and a national overall framework. Organizations closely linked to Iran, including the Justice Alliance, Imam Ali Brigade, Martyr Hussein Brigade and Ansar Allah Al-Awfiya Brigade, have actively responded to the call.
Anti-disarmament Camp: Factions such as the Kata'ib Hezbollah and Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq firmly oppose disarmament, emphasizing that armed forces are inseparable from national sovereignty. They argue that discussions on relevant issues can only be carried out after the complete withdrawal of US, NATO and Turkish troops from Iraq and the safeguarding of national sovereignty, citing precedents in Libya, Sudan and other countries.

Both the Kata'ib Hezbollah and Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, which hold opposing attitudes, are important Iranian-backed Shiite military organizations with complete command structures and cross-border strike capabilities. As the United States further strengthens its military deployment in Iraq, the two sides are likely to fall into the conflict cycle of "attack-counterattack" again, putting greater pressure on Iraq's domestic security autonomy.

III. Other Aspects

(1) Frequent Traffic Accidents with Severe Casualties

In December, multiple traffic accidents occurred in several provinces of Iraq, including Nineveh, Babil, Dhi Qar, Salahuddin and Baghdad. These accidents were mainly vehicle collisions and rollovers, caused by human factors such as speeding and illegal retrograde driving, as well as natural factors such as heavy fog. The accidents resulted in at least 10 deaths and 4 injuries.

Nineveh Province: Two brothers were killed instantly in a traffic accident in the Sinjar area. In the Kokjali area east of Mosul, two women died in a hit-and-run incident.
Babil Province: An army captain was killed in a traffic accident while returning on the Hilla Highway.
Dhi Qar Province: In the Al-Gharraf area north of Nasiriyah, a civilian vehicle rolled over, killing 2 people and seriously injuring 1. A motorcycle driver collided with a heavy truck while driving retrograde illegally and died on the spot.
Salahuddin Province: On the southern Tikrit section of the Baghdad-Tikrit Expressway, an oil tanker rolled over and caught fire, injuring two civilians.
Baghdad: Near the Pearl Gas Station in the southern Dora District, two jeeps collided violently due to speeding and heavy fog, killing an Iraqi Intelligence Service colonel and his wife and injuring their children. Meanwhile, another man was killed and a woman was injured.

Recommendations for Chinese-funded Enterprises and Individuals in Iraq

Enterprise Level

Strengthen Dynamic Risk Assessment and Response: Establish a normalized risk monitoring system, track the subsequent presidential and prime ministerial elections and cabinet formation progress in real time, and flexibly adjust enterprise activity arrangements and business strategies according to the situation.
Upgrade Premises Security Protection Level: Equip with professional security personnel, improve the premises security system, formulate and drill emergency evacuation plans. Strictly abide by Iraqi laws and regulations, fully respect local traditions and religious beliefs, and maintain regular communication and coordination with local governments and tribal elders to avoid being involved in local factional disputes.

Individual Level

Enhance Daily Safety Precautions: Avoid going out unless necessary; when going out, travel in groups and stay away from protest and demonstration areas as well as crowded gathering places. Keep in mind the emergency contact numbers: Iraq Police (130), Emergency Medical Services (105), 24-hour Global Emergency Call Center for Consular Protection and Services of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China (+86-10-12308), Consular Protection and Assistance Hotline of the Embassy of the People's Republic of China in Iraq (+964-7901912315), Consular Protection and Assistance Hotline of the Consulate General of the People's Republic of China in Erbil (+964-7515477820), and Consular Protection and Assistance Hotline of the Consulate General of the People's Republic of China in Basra (+964-7858618940).
Establish a Strong Safety Awareness: Carry valid identity documents when going out; avoid carrying large amounts of cash or other valuables; dress in a low-key and simple manner. In case of emergencies such as armed conflicts, shootings or stone-throwing by crowds, immediately find reliable cover nearby, and do not watch, take photos or intervene in disputes.
Pay Close Attention to Weather Warning Information and Ensure Traffic Safety: Iraq has entered winter, and some areas will face weather conditions such as temperature drop, increased precipitation, haze and strong winds, which may cause slippery roads, water accumulation and reduced visibility. When driving, strictly control the speed to effectively ensure traffic safety.