South Africa Security Situation Overview for November 2025(Issue No. 278 in Total)

South Africa Security Situation Overview (November)

Researcher No. 006

Based on monitoring reports from Hanwei International's security officers stationed in South Africa and relevant media coverage, Hanwei International's analysis indicates that South Africa is facing a severe and complex social security situation this month. At the political and economic level, President Cyril Ramaphosa is under dual pressure from within and outside his party, exposing deep-seated rifts in the Government of National Unity (GNU). Tax imbalance and sluggish economic growth have left grassroots security and anti-terrorism efforts in a vacuum. Behind-the-scenes tensions simmered on the sidelines of the G20 Summit, amplifying South Africa’s racial and immigration disputes. In terms of social security, violent incidents such as shootings, murders, and robberies have continued to occur frequently. Cape Town, in particular, has seen a spate of serial shootings and homicides,with the violent situation spiraling further out of control. Additionally, floods have worsened across South Africa this month, with informal settlements bearing the brunt of the damage.

I. Political and Economic Dimensions

(1) GNU Exists in Name Only; Presidential Authority Faces Dual Pressures

On November 1, 2025, the two-day closed-door secret meeting chaired by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa officially concluded. During the meeting, Ramaphosa issued a "call for unity", urging key leaders of the Government of National Unity (GNU) to set aside differences and prioritize resolving the issue of local government dysfunction. The President’s spokesperson only confirmed the holding of the meeting in a brief statement, and this low-key posture further underscores the deep-seated divisions within the GNU and the uncertainty surrounding the President’s political future.

According to insiders from the African National Congress (ANC), Ramaphosa’s popularity within the party has continued to decline, with speculation rife that he may step down early before his term expires in 2029, or even as soon as early next year. 

Ramaphosa is currently mired in dual pressures:On one hand, he has to counter challenges to key bills from John Steenhuisen, leader of the Democratic Alliance (DA), as well as the "leadership reshuffle controversy" sparked on November 8. The DA put forward two cabinet personnel adjustment proposals, recommending that DA spokesperson Willie du Plessis and Member of Parliament Alex Abrahamson take over as Minister of Environment, Forestry and Fisheries and Deputy Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition respectively.

On the other hand, he has been hamstrung by the "excessive interference" of senior party figures such as former President Thabo Mbeki.

(2) Tax Crisis and Stagnant Growth Push Grassroots Security to the Brink of Collapse

On November 11, research data from Dawie Roodt, Chief Economist of Efficient Group, showed that South African taxpayers are trapped in a predicament of "high tax burden and low returns"—for every 1 rand paid in taxes, they only receive approximately 5 cents worth of public services from the government. A mere 1.5% of South Africa’s population shoulders over 60% of personal income tax, with this minority group becoming the core pillar of the tax system to support the country’s massive public expenditure. Meanwhile, data released by the World Bank on November 14 revealed that from 1994 to 2025, South Africa’s share of Africa’s total economy has plummeted from nearly one-third to 15%, with an economic growth rate of 261% far below the African average of nearly 1,000%, even lagging behind Zimbabwe, which once experienced an economic collapse.

Dawie Roodt described this as a "dual collapse of infrastructure and the economy". The fiscal crisis has directly led to cuts in public security investment. The government is unable to raise police salaries, allocate funds for upgrading police equipment and improving monitoring systems, or even effectively control the outflow of internal firearms. Some municipal areas have even ceased operations due to fiscal bankruptcy. The weak grassroots security framework has provided an opportunity for violent criminals to exploit.

(3) Racial and Immigration Disputes Intensify Pressure on Domestic Governance

On November 12, Solidarity, a South African labor union, launched a counterattack against the Johannesburg municipal government over a billboard removal incident. It announced plans to erect an additional 28 billboards with slogans such as "South Africa has become the world’s most strictly regulated country in terms of racial laws" ahead of the G20 Leaders’ Summit to expand public influence. On November 22, on the eve of the G20 Summit’s conclusion, the anti-immigrant group Operation Dudula staged a protest outside the venue, with some supporters of the uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) Party participating. The demonstration aimed to highlight South Africa’s livelihood crises such as high crime rates and unemployment to the international community, with a particular focus on expressing dissatisfaction with the government’s ineffective immigration management. During the protest, police used rubber bullets and tear gas to disperse demonstrators and prevent them from breaching the summit’s security cordon, arresting two Operation Dudula members on the spot.

The G20 Summit should have been a crucial opportunity for South Africa to enhance its international reputation. However, the racial and immigration protests that erupted on the sidelines have profoundly exposed the country’s domestic governance crisis, which may erode international investors’ confidence and further exacerbate the current economic woes.

II. Social Security Risks

(1) Shooting Incidents

• Gauteng Province: In Reiger Park, two Volkswagen Polo cars randomly opened fire in a residential area, killing 6 people and injuring 3 others. In West Rand, Johannesburg, several teenagers were ambushed by rival gang gunmen on the street, resulting in 2 deaths and 5 injuries.

• Western Cape Province: The security situation in Cape Town has been particularly severe recently, with serial shootings breaking out in multiple communities such as Manenberg and Khayelitsha. In just one weekend, at least 44 people were shot, 26 were killed, and 18 sustained serious injuries.Shooting violence this month has shown obvious geographical concentration, with Gauteng Province and Western Cape Province emerging as the core disaster zones. Gauteng Province, with its dense population, has seen frequent random shootings in residential areas and on streets, reflecting the randomness and spread of security risks. In contrast, Western Cape Province has deeply entrenched gang forces, with high incidence of organized shooting violence that has a broader impact.

(2) Homicides

(3) Robberies

• Home Robberies: Data from Statistics South Africa indicates that home robberies remain the most prominent crime type nationwide, with as many as 1.5 million cases recorded in the 2024/25 fiscal year, affecting 6% of households. Recently, criminals have targeted real estate open houses, using the pretense of viewing properties to conduct reconnaissance for subsequent home robbery plans.

• Highway Robberies: On November 4, a vicious cash-in-transit heist occurred on the N6 Highway in the Ducats section of Eastern Cape Province. 18 suspects ambushed an armored cash vehicle and fled with a huge sum of cash. On November 20, a cigarette delivery truck hijacking took place in Mpumalanga Province, where two armed suspects seized 28 boxes of cigarettes worth approximately 500,000 rand.

III. Other Developments

(1) Floods Encircle Cities, Exacerbating Crisis

Recommendations from Hanwei International for Chinese-funded Enterprises and Individuals in South Africa

For Enterprises

1. Dynamically Track Political Risks and Ensure Compliance in Business OperationsContinuously monitor recent cabinet changes and party dynamics in South Africa, with special attention to policy changes in industries closely related to business operations such as industry, trade, and environment. Formulate policy contingency plans in advance to reduce project delays or compliance issues caused by personnel adjustments. At the same time, strictly abide by local laws and regulations in South Africa, take the initiative to establish regular communication with local chambers of commerce and communities, and promptly obtain surrounding security information.
2. Strengthen Security Measures for Factories and OfficesGiven the insufficient grassroots security forces, rampant gun ownership, and growing gang influence, enterprises should enhance security facilities at factories and office premises, and deploy 24/7 professional security personnel.

For Individuals

1. Stay Away from Areas with Weak Security and High-risk PeriodsPay close attention to official security alerts and avoid traveling to areas with inadequate municipal services and high crime rates, especially remote areas or urban-rural junctions. Minimize going out alone late at night; if necessary, hire professional security personnel to accompany you.
2. Enhance Daily Security AwarenessReinforce doors and windows at residences and regularly maintain security facilities. Save South Africa’s emergency number (10111), the consular protection hotlines of Chinese embassies and consulates in South Africa, and contact information of local Chinese associations in advance, and set them as emergency contacts. In case of emergencies, prioritize personal safety, then report to the police immediately and contact the embassy for assistance afterwards.