Analysis of Nigeria's Social Security Situation in August 2024
Researcher No. 007
According to monitoring reports from Hanwei International’s West Africa security officers and comprehensive media coverage, a total of 48 security incidents were recorded in Nigeria in August 2024. These incidents resulted in the deaths of 329 civilians and 9 military/police personnel, with nearly 100 people kidnapped. The primary types of security incidents included armed attacks, kidnappings, protests, and public safety accidents. Compared to the previous month, the number of security incidents decreased by 1, while the death toll rose by 180, and the number of kidnappings decreased by 215. Analysis indicates that Nigeria’s overall security situation deteriorated this month. In addition to ongoing armed attacks and kidnappings, nationwide protests erupted in early August, leading to riots, while floods in the northern region in late August caused significant casualties and property damage. Notably, on August 11, another incident involving the kidnapping of Chinese nationals occurred in Ogun State, further complicating the security landscape. Overall, north-central and northeastern Nigeria remain at extremely high risk, while other regions are classified as high or medium-high risk.
I. Comprehensive Analysis of Security Incidents
In August, Nigeria experienced 48 security incidents, including:
16 armed attacks (33%)
14 kidnappings (29%)
5 public safety accidents (10%)
10 protests (20%)
2 ethnic conflicts (4%)
These incidents resulted in 446 deaths (including 329 civilians, 9 security personnel, and 108 terrorists killed) and at least 93 kidnappings.
Figure 1: Distribution of Security Incidents in August
Chart 1: Statistics on Major Regional Security Incidents
Key characteristics of the security situation:
(1) Extremely High Risk in North-Central and Northeast Nigeria
Security incidents were concentrated in Kaduna, Zamfara, and Niger States (north-central) and Borno State (northeast).
Kaduna State (6 incidents): Mostly armed attacks/kidnappings (4 deaths, 23 kidnapped).
Zamfara State (6 incidents): Armed attacks/kidnappings (18 deaths, 20 kidnapped).
Borno State (5 incidents): Armed attacks/kidnappings (29 deaths, 7 kidnapped).
(2) Frequent Armed Attacks & Kidnappings, Foreigners as Prime Targets
16 armed attacks & 14 kidnappings (114 deaths, 93 kidnapped).
Notable incidents:
August 1: Bomb explosion at a tea shop in Kauri Village, Borno (19 dead, 27 injured).
August 8: Attack in Kajuru LGA, Kaduna (village head killed, women/children kidnapped).
August 11: Two Chinese workers kidnapped in Ogun State (ransom demanded).
August 16: 20 university students abducted in Benue State.
August 19: Armed raid on a farm in Niger State (9 killed).
Foreigners and prominent Nigerians are frequent kidnapping targets, particularly in the south-central region, where armed groups use kidnappings for funding. According to Constellis, Nigeria is among the top 10 countries for kidnapping foreigners for ransom. In 2024 alone, over 68 mass kidnappings occurred, exceeding the totals of 2019 and 2020 combined.
(3) Nationwide Protests Turned Violent
From August 1–10, Nigeria witnessed "Hunger Protests" demanding better living conditions and security. Despite heightened security, protests in Abuja, Kano, Lagos, and northern states turned violent, with looting and arson.
Kano State: Worst-hit; protesters burned the NCC headquarters and looted food supplies.
Lagos: Pro- and anti-government clashes paralyzed businesses.
President Tinubu called for calm on August 4, but security forces later cracked down.
Casualties: ~40 dead (including 1 police officer).
Economic losses: Estimated 700 billion Naira ($12M) in 3 days.
(4) Public Safety Disasters (Floods & Disease Outbreaks)
Floods in late August: 179 dead, 200,000 displaced (northern states).
Boat accidents: 25 dead, 15 missing.
Monkeypox alert: 835 suspected cases, 44 confirmed (no deaths). Nigeria heightened surveillance at airports/seaports.
(5) Military Counterterrorism Operations
204 suspected terrorists arrested, 66 weapons seized.
Airstrikes destroyed a Boko Haram/Iswap bomb factory in Mandara Mountains.
130 hostages rescued in northeast operations.
Oil theft crackdown: 1.13M liters of stolen crude recovered.
Chart 2: Security Incident Categories
Chart 3: Death Toll Breakdown
Chart 4: August vs. July Incident Comparison
II. Risk Warnings & Prevention Measures
Chart 5: Nigeria’s Recent Security Risk Alerts
Recommendations:
Enhanced Travel Security: Deploy armed escorts, avoid high-risk zones.
Flood Preparedness: Niger River expected to overflow (late August–September).
Risk Avoidance:
Avoid northeast/north-central regions, highways, and crowded areas.
Strengthen compound security (surveillance, barriers, armed guards).
Stay clear of government/military sites, religious venues, and oil facilities.
