Nigeria Social Security Situation Analysis - December 2024
Researcher No. 007
According to monitoring reports from Hanwei International's West Africa security officers and comprehensive media coverage, 43 security incidents were recorded in Nigeria during December 2024. These incidents resulted in 148 civilian deaths, 18 military/police deaths, and at least 112 kidnappings. The main types of security incidents included armed attacks, kidnappings, farmer-herder conflicts, and public safety accidents. Compared with the previous month, there were 20 fewer security incidents, 28 fewer deaths, and 21 fewer kidnappings. During the Christmas and New Year holidays, Nigeria continued to experience frequent armed attacks and kidnappings along with multiple public safety accidents (including stampedes) causing significant casualties and property damage, presenting a complex and severe overall security situation. The central-northern, northwestern, and central-southern regions faced extremely high security risks, while other areas maintained high or medium-high risk levels.
I. Comprehensive Analysis of Security Incidents
The 43 security incidents in December included: 15 armed attacks (34%), 10 armed kidnappings (23%), 7 public safety incidents (16%), 3 protests (6.9%), 3 herder-farmer armed conflicts (6.9%), and 5 military clearance operations (11%). These incidents caused 173 deaths (148 civilians, 18 security personnel, 7 terrorists) and at least 112 kidnappings.
Key characteristics of the security situation:
(1) Extremely High Risks in Central-North, Northwest, and Central-South
December's security incidents were concentrated in Zamfara State (central-north), Sokoto State (northwest), and Anambra State (central-south). Zamfara State recorded the highest risk with 5 security incidents (armed attacks/kidnappings) causing 13 deaths and 63 kidnappings, creating widespread fear. Additional security forces have been deployed to curb kidnappings. Anambra State reported 5 incidents (armed attacks/kidnappings/stampedes) with 33 deaths and 2 kidnappings. Sokoto State faces threats from new terrorist group "Lukarawas," experiencing 3 attacks with 19 deaths and 7 kidnappings.
Additionally, Hanwei International reported a foiled kidnapping attempt on December 21 near Okpatu town (Enugu State) on A3 highway, where 4 suspected Fulani kidnappers were repelled by soldiers. Organizations in these areas must enhance security during holidays.
Figure 1: December Security Incident Distribution Map
Chart 1: December Major Regional Security Incident Statistics
(2) New Characteristics of Armed Attacks/Kidnappings
December saw 14 armed attacks and 10 kidnappings (70 deaths, ≥112 kidnappings). Notable incidents: December 1 - Terrorists attacked Dan Tudu community (Sokoto), killing 9; December 4 - Bus hit IED in Zamfara, killing 12; December 8 - Bandits kidnapped 50+ women/children in Zamfara; December 22 - Suspected Fulani herders killed 15 in Plateau State.
Nigeria's National Bureau of Statistics reported on December 20 that from May 2023-April 2024: 614,900 violent deaths (206,000 in NW, 188,900 in NE); 2.235 million kidnappings (1.423 million in NW); total ransom paid: ₦2.23 trillion (~¥10.4 billion), averaging ₦2.7 million per case. 91% kidnappings were for ransom, with 82.1% victims released and 12.8% killed.
Root causes: (1) High unemployment/inflation post-COVID drives crime; (2) Security vacuums in northern forests with smuggling networks. New trends: (1) Nationwide terrorist/armed groups (Boko Haram expanding from NE to NW, including November 19 attack injuring Chinese miner); (2) Evolving tactics - ISWAP/Boko Haram using armed drones (December 24-25 attacks in Yobe/Borno). President Tinubu ordered military to eradicate banditry by 2025, with enhanced NW operations.
(3) Recurring China-Related Incidents
December incidents: (1) December 7 - NSCDC arrested 1 Chinese + 5 Nigerians for illegal mining in Anambra; (2) December 20 - 85 Chinese cybercrime suspects (arrested November 24) granted bail after Abuja court proceedings; (3) December 24 disclosure of November 19 Boko Haram ambush on NSCDC-escorted mining team (including 2 Chinese) in Niger State - first Chinese casualty in Boko Haram attack (1 injured, 4 soldiers killed).
(4) Stampedes Cause Mass Casualties
December recorded 3 stampedes, 1 boat sinking, and 1 military airstrike mishap (84 total deaths). Stampedes: December 18 - Ibadan school new year event (32 dead); December 21 - Anambra rice distribution (22 dead); same day - Abuja church aid distribution (10+ dead). Lassa fever remains prevalent: NCDC reported 9,685 suspected cases (1,187 confirmed, 191 deaths, CFR 16.5%) across 28 states as of December 15.
(5) Continued Military Operations
Nigeria launched joint patrols with Chad/Niger on December 9 against new terrorist group "Lakurawa." A 2-week crackdown arrested 62 suspects (armed robbery/kidnapping/drugs), seizing weapons, ₦129.5 billion counterfeit cash (Kano), and intercepting 100,000L stolen crude (Ondo). Nasarawa State arrested 280 violent criminals in 2024 (107 kidnappers), rescuing 27 hostages.
Chart 2: December Security Incident Type Comparison
Chart 3: December Fatality Category Statistics
Chart 4: December vs November Major Incident Comparison
II. Risk Warning & Prevention Recommendations
Chart 5: Nigeria Social Security Risk Early Warning
Given Nigeria's complex social environment and high-risk security assessment, the following security measures are recommended:
1. Implement 24/7 Security Escorts for Travel Nigeria's remote rural areas have limited police presence and poor road infrastructure, with security forces often responding to violent crimes and conflicts with significant delays. Therefore, Chinese enterprises and others should obtain up-to-date local security intelligence, conduct specific security assessments for travel destinations, and ensure armed security personnel accompany all movements.
2. Enhance Security Precautions During Year-End Holidays Late December witnessed multiple stampede incidents in Nigeria causing heavy casualties. During the year-end and New Year period, non-essential travel should be avoided while closely monitoring local media reports on security incidents. The Chinese Embassy in Nigeria reminded Chinese enterprises and citizens on December 24 to prioritize personal safety during Christmas and New Year holidays by: closely monitoring situations, ensuring travel safety, preventing security risks, guarding against telecom fraud, and operating in compliance with laws.
3. Comply with Local Laws for Standardized Operations December saw multiple cases of Chinese citizens arrested for violating local laws. All Chinese enterprises and nationals in Nigeria must emphasize legal operations, comply with Nigerian laws and regulations, and avoid involvement in similar legal disputes or criminal cases.
4. Effectively Mitigate Risks Most attacks occur in northeastern and central-northern Nigeria, particularly Maiduguri (Borno State), connecting roads between major towns, border areas with Niger, and Zamfara State. Kaduna State and Abuja have seen frequent recent incidents. During terrorist attacks, follow official instructions and immediately contact designated security providers. Install CCTV surveillance at residences, shops, and warehouses; equip compounds with trenches, high walls, barbed wire, crash barriers, buffer zones, and alarms; strengthen military/police security presence and expand defensive perimeters. Avoid lingering near potential attack targets including government/military facilities, landmarks, and religious sites. Minimize time spent in high-risk areas: NE Nigeria, religious festivals, ethnically mixed communities, high-crime zones (especially highways/Gulf of Guinea piracy areas), oil/gas facilities, government/military installations, embassies, places of worship, schools, markets, refugee camps, and transport hubs.
