Iraq04Monthly Security Situation Report
006Researcher
According to monitoring reports from Hanwei International's security officers in Iraq and related media coverage, while there are still many controversies regarding the election law amendments, the overall security situation in Iraq this month remains complex and severe. Economically, Iraq's heavy reliance on oil exports makes it vulnerable to international oil price fluctuations, leading to a sharp decline in fiscal revenue that affects social welfare; frequent protests across various sectors expose deep-seated social contradictions. In terms of social security, terrorist organizations and extremist forces remain active, while U.S. military movements and defense system tests further exacerbate social instability. Regarding sudden security incidents, severe sandstorms and the outbreak of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) pose serious threats to public health.
1. Economic Aspects
(1) U.S. imposes new tariffs on Iraq, reducing fiscal revenue
In April 2025, U.S. President Trump announced new tariff policies, imposing an additional 39% tariff on imports from Iraq, excluding oil, natural gas, and refined products. While most of Iraq's oil exports remain tariff-free with an effective tariff rate of just 0.1%, the resulting global oil price decline has placed Iraq, as OPEC's second-largest oil producer, in a dilemma of reduced oil demand and falling prices.
Given Iraq's heavy economic reliance on oil exports, this dilemma will directly reduce fiscal revenue, affecting the government's already fragile investments in social welfare, infrastructure, education, and healthcare, hindering livelihood security and potentially sparking public discontent. Meanwhile, the oil industry will face direct impacts, with reduced income potentially leading companies to cut costs through reduced hiring or layoffs, worsening Iraq's domestic employment situation. Reduced benefits for employees may trigger sustained protests, leading to a cascade of social issues.
(2) Growing social contradictions spark protests across sectors
Education sector: This month, educators in Baghdad, Diyala, Dhi Qar, Karbala, and Najaf continued protests demanding fair salaries and necessary legal protections. The situation in Dhi Qar is particularly severe, with over 60 school principals resigning in protest against security forces' previous use of tear gas and other violent measures. Conflicts between Iraq's Teachers' Union and the government, as well as between local and central authorities, have further complicated the situation. Public service sector: Since November 2024, over 25,000 newly retired civil servants in the Kurdistan region have not received pensions, leaving retirees in dire straits. This month, contract workers at Kirkuk's Victory Hospital protested unpaid wages for two months, with actual payments being only half of the contracted amount. These incidents reflect the fragility of Iraq's fiscal distribution and social security systems. Agricultural sector: Farmers in Wasit protested the government's reduction in wheat and barley prices and its refusal to purchase crops beyond quotas, with some facing police violence. This incident exposes the instability of Iraq's agricultural policies.
These multi-sector protests intertwine, deeply reflecting Iraq's long-standing issues of fiscal mismanagement, corruption, and an incomplete legal system. Frequent protests will severely impact the already unstable social security situation and disrupt normal social order. As Iraq prepares for parliamentary elections, such protests may further erode public trust in the government.
2. Social Security Aspects
(1) ISIS remnants remain active as counterterrorism operations continue
This month, Iraqi security forces conducted counter-ISIS operations across multiple regions, including border provinces with Syria and complex inland areas. On April 7, Iraq's Counter-Terrorism Service announced the arrest of a high-ranking ISIS military official during a cross-regional "clearing" operation in Nineveh Province. On April 8, large-scale search operations in Anbar's northern Rawah area extended to Nineveh's deserts and the Hawi Azam canyon at Salah al-Din and Diyala's border to hunt ISIS remnants. On April 17, Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces announced cutting off ISIS fuel supply routes in Anbar's western deserts. On April 21, security forces launched large-scale operations in Diyala's rugged Hamrin Mountains.
Additionally, drone attacks in Iraq's Kurdistan region highlight the complex security situation along the Syria-Iraq border, where turmoil in parts of Syria provides hiding spots for ISIS terrorists. Frequent military operations indicate the persistent terrorist threat, requiring continued efforts.
(2) U.S. military movements in Iraq trigger regional chain reactions
On April 9, The Cradle reported that since mid-March 2025, the U.S. military had begun phased withdrawals from northeastern Syria's bases, relocating personnel and equipment to Iraq's Kurdistan region. Recently, helicopters and drones frequently appeared over Syria's Hasakah, Deir ez-Zor, and Qamishli, escorting military convoys into Iraq. On April 25, the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad tested its Counter-Rocket, Artillery, and Mortar (C-RAM) systems in the Green Zone to evaluate defensive capabilities.
These U.S. military movements and defense tests may trigger multi-dimensional chain reactions: Politically, they could exacerbate tensions between Iraq's pro- and anti-U.S. factions, with critics accusing the government of "tolerating foreign military presence" and potentially undermining Prime Minister Sudani's authority ahead of November's elections. Security-wise, they may provoke anti-U.S. armed groups, increasing conflict risks. Socially, they could cause public panic and further erode trust, potentially sparking large-scale protests.
3. Sudden Public Incidents
(1) Cross-regional sandstorms hit Iraq
This month, severe sandstorms struck multiple Iraqi regions with high frequency, wide coverage, and deep impacts. On April 14, central and southern Iraq experienced the year's strongest sandstorm, affecting Najaf, Dhi Qar, Muthanna, and Basra provinces. Some areas saw visibility drop below 50 meters due to dense sand.
Reports indicate over 1,800 hospitalizations for respiratory issues, with the elderly and children most affected. Transportation was severely disrupted, with numerous flight delays.
(2) Rising CCHF cases in Iraq
This month, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) outbreaks occurred across Iraq, showing scattered cases and high fatality rates, particularly in Kirkuk and Diyala's farming regions. Kirkuk is a hotspot, with cases rising since its first confirmed case on April 15.
By month's end, Iraq recorded 27 CCHF cases across Kirkuk, Dhi Qar, Diyala, and Muthanna, with 4 deaths in Kirkuk, 2 in Muthanna, and 1 in Diyala. The virus has a high fatality rate, exceeding 40% if misdiagnosed or untreated. Initial symptoms include high fever, severe headache, and muscle pain, potentially progressing to internal bleeding, neurological failure, and multi-organ dysfunction, posing serious health risks.
Recommendations for Chinese enterprises and individuals in Iraq: 1. Monitor policy changes to enhance risk resilience. Stay updated on economic indicators like exchange rates and local policies to adapt quickly. Avoid protest-prone areas like city centers and government buildings, and heed safety alerts from Chinese embassies. 2. Strengthen security awareness. Avoid ISIS-active zones, U.S. military areas, and the Syria-Iraq border. Use professional security when necessary and fortify living/working spaces with barriers and safe rooms. Contact local police or the Chinese Embassy in emergencies. 3. Stay informed on sudden incidents and take precautions. For sandstorms, monitor weather alerts, avoid outdoor activities, and stock N95 masks and goggles. For CCHF, wear light-colored long sleeves in rural areas to prevent tick bites, practice hygiene, and avoid touching eyes/nose/mouth after handling raw meat.
